There is problem in its making

AI promoters are like the snake oil peddlers of the late 18th and early 19th century in America, who exploited people’s unscientific belief that oil from snakes had various health benefits.

The concoctions sold as snake oil didn’t contain what was claimed, it was largely found to be ineffective and in extreme case led to the loss of life. AI snake oil literally means AI that does not work.

However, it does favor us by shining what may not work because research in more than a dozen AI fields have found far-reaching credibility crises. AI Snake Oil uncovers such rampant claims and warns of the dangers of AI when it is controlled by largely unaccountable big tech corporations.

Amidst so much publicity around AI, an amazing hype around artificial intelligence has been generated at the cost of human wisdom. Driven by the desire to quick fix solutions, the hype comes around with questionable generative and predictive answers. Should it not be the responsibility of researchers to separate the milk from the froth?

The professor-student team of Narayanan and Kapoor at the Princeton University have cut through the hype with some clear and crisp writing on how AI fails us daily, and how it might one day benefit us. Interestingly, they comment on new developments in AI in their newsletter AISnakeoil.com.

Jobs threat

That AI will cause sudden mass joblessness seems farfetched; however, it will change the nature of many jobs and decrease the demand for other jobs. Previous waves of automation had similar impact, albeit more abrupt. When typewriter was replaced by word processer the transformation was significant, as it called for a change in the nature and skill of job.

Rarely been a job category been replaced entirely by technology, only elevator operator seems to have disappeared due to automation. Automation often decreases the number of people working in a job or sector without eliminating it.

Called automation paradox, the most common type of impact is a change in the nature of job duties. Last mile phenomenon of automation is of critical importance: it takes previously done job but creates new types of needs for human labor. For those whose jobs are already automated, however, the prospects could be scary. 

One must appreciate that Narayanan and Kapoor have made things simple, which others have tried to make it complex. AI Snake Oil offers a breath of fresh air about both AIs, predictive and generative.

As of today, predictive AI is not on a firm footing. Falling prey to snake oil is crucial when it is known how it fails and even harms people. The problem is how much data we can have and how effective our models are likely to predict the future. Limits to predicting future based on the past data and concurrent trends is fraught with uncertainty. Machine learning therefore can only generate the plausibility of what the future might hold.

Proponents of AI know the limits but do not want any reputational damage as yet. A 2023 paper claimed that machine learning could predict hit songs with 97 percent accuracy, however, in reality the study’s results are anything but false or even bogus. Earlier studies do bear testimony to it, although such papers about ‘frightening accuracy’ have the potential to revolutionize the music industry.

Who would not want to spin money based on such a hype? Overall, more than a dozen fields have compiled evidence of widespread flaws but none of it has been publicly accepted, but the supply of snake oil comes from companies that want to sell predictive AI.

Capital theory

“Fears about automation/technology are fears about capitalism.” As companies are driven by profit, AI is expected to generate profit. More than technology, it is capital which is at the core of the entire debate. Big Tech companies have gotten so rich off of AI that they can easily mold public perception.

Academic research and tech journalism too are completely dependent on industry funding. It is this aspect that Narayanan and Kapoor have tried to bring up honestly in their book. Painting AI with a single brush is tempting but flawed, they say. AI Snake Oil is all about why there is so much information, misunderstanding, and mythology about AI.

There is a collective learning, but non-acceptance of common follies. Everyone is found guilty of telling untruths – if not to one another, then to themselves. Certainly, everyone in AI fraternity is found guilty of that. Most of the time, what we think of as truth is threaded with self-serving distortions. AI Snake Oil has everything you ever wanted to know about AI. 

AI Snake Oil
by Arvind Narayanan & Sayash Kapoor
Princeton University Press, USA 
Extent: 348 pages. Price; Rs. 699,

First published in the HinduBusinessLine on Nov 25, 2024.

The 'Queens' of Kings

Closely related as mothers, daughters, sisters, half-sisters. and nieces, known with the only name of the Cleopatras, they ruled Egypt for a period of more than a century and a half (192 BCE – 30 BCE). When taken as a collective, the generation of Cleopatras set a new model for female power in antiquity. Together they dominated the politically world of men, in vigor, finesse, ambition, rigor, vision, and ability. All seven were direct blood relatives; and all of them were queens of Egypt. Composed of two Greek words, kleos meaning glory/fame, and pater meaning father/homeland was a big name to live up to.  

Historian Lloyd Llewellyn-Jones tells the dramatic story of these seven incomparable women, vividly tracing the kingdom’s final centuries before its fall to Rome. The Cleopatras were descendants of Ptolemy, the general who conquered Egypt alongside Alexander the Great. They were closely related, and wielded absolute power in overshadowing their husbands or sons. Without fail they all proved to be shrewd and capable leaders. The Cleopatras ruled through the canny deployment of arcane rituals, opulent spectacles, and unparalleled wealth. They negotiated political turmoil and court intrigues, led armies into battle fields and commanded fleets of ships, and ruthlessly dispatched their dynastic rivals. 

Women to remain on top have had to pay a heavy price. The Cleopatra wase a formidable name to matter. It matters as the Cleopatra was the first with a new genuine framework for aligning with active political power. Their collective story is neglected till today, but it shows that how they adjusted to the male-dominated institution. Taken together, theirs is an impeccable narrative on women’s power in the stiflingly patriarchal world. Llewellyn-Jones must be credited for bringing a story of ruthlessness, but also of lifelong determination. 

All the Cleopatras craved for power, and eventually wielded power. Some of the Cleopatras shared the same royal husband, whereas others plotted the overthrow their husbands. Each of the Cleopatras had an interesting story, about surviving marriage, betrayal, murder, violence and loss. The emotional turmoil each of them went through remains more of a speculation. Sex as a lure for power remains hard to comprehend. 

The life and times of each Cleopatras was much complicated. They were the power brokers of the Ptolemaic dynasty, no doubt. Through several successive generations the Cleopatras underplayed their traditional roles as mothers and spouses. While each Cleopatra may have different take on the subject, the compulsion to sustain gender dominance may have the last word. Only by doing so, the Cleopatras could gain time for the Romans takeover.  

At the peak of the Cleopatras rule, the last Cleopatra claimed the lofty title Queen of Kings. The Cleopatra VII demonstrated that women were born to rule over men. Professor Lloyd Llewellyn-Jones offers fresh insights into the real story of the Cleopatras, and the tragic death of the last queen of Egypt.  

The Cleopatras  
by Lloyd Llewellyn-Jones 
Hachette, New Delhi 
Extent: 361, Price: Rs. 999.

First published in Deccan Herald on Nov 10, 2024.

Full-Stomach Environmentalism

Ramachandra Guha may not have done justice to the Indian Environmentalism in his recently published book 'Speaking with Nature'. For those (largely rural) who traditionally viewed 'nature' as a giver of services (natural), only expected saved/protected nature could extend uninterrupted supply of those services. While the Chipko that was borne out of the realization that 'trees' contributed to sustaining those services, its southern version (called the Appiko) serving the same purpose got excluded from the ecological history? Why the variety of response and tenacity of the (eco) service is not appreciated? 

It was in the mid-1980s that the Appiko, a momentous event in the ecological history of the country, had reminded people about the virtues of protecting nature to keep the 'gateway to the monsoons' thriving with natural processes. Not only did this spontaneous social action led to a moratorium on green felling across the Sahyadri range of mountains, but the movement has also been the vanguard of ecological conservation ever since: from opposing a seventh dam on the Kali River in Karnataka to saving the Nilgiris in Tamil Nadu, from taking on the controversial ‘Nylon 66’ project in Goa, and to supporting the Chalakudy river conservation in Kerala. For Guha, it was 'full-stomach environmentalism' (led by the elite) much prevalent during last-1970 and post-1980.

Though the legacy of most of the TEN eminent eco-historians (profiled in the book) remain lost in time, the issue of protecting the ecosystem that generates/protects livelihoods remain alive or at least remained so till the end-of-the-millennium. These individuals demonstrated a combination of love and caring attitude towards nature. Has such love and caring not been essential part of cultural-religious practices in the country for ages? Did the eco-historians ever rebuild those practices by strengthening the environment messages contained therein? As I write this, I do see chhat festival (traditionally celebrated in Bihar) being celebrated in polluted rivers or stagnant muddies all across. The ritualistic value of such mass-based cultural events is socially accepted in most religious festivals, but the essential ecological messages remained lost. 

While there has been an economic turnround in recent times, a shift toward 'full-stomach environmentalism' of the affluent seems apparent. With economy having taken a turnover, only the abject poor expect nature to give them the livelihood services. Rapid urbanization has transformed the country's demography. Environmentalism of the present needs a serious rethinking, as the past-environmentalism seems to have been outdated. 

Guha himself acknowledges that air pollution is relentlessly increasing; most of our rivers are biologically dead; and the chemical contamination of soils remains extremely high. There is a gross political disregard to these issues because legacy of past-environmentalism hasn't contributed anything significant in this regard. Most rivers are in bad shape, and nobody seems concerned even if it flows next door as bottled water is easily available. Did environment consciousness ever address such transformations? Are there any footmarks of the past left for the others to step in?     

Even though climate change is not our creation, India finds itself in an environmental disaster zone. Guha raises it and questions the failure of the environment thinkers to forewarn it. The book offers the thoughts of eminent environmentalists to fertilize our minds, but the profiled minds in this volume have literally fell short of doing so. Not sure why historian E.P.Thompson had remarked "There is not a thought that is being thought in the West or East which is not active in some Indian mind." 

Speaking with Nature
by Ramachandra Guha
Fourth Estate/HarperCollins, New Delhi
Extent: 406 pages, Price: Rs 799.

First published in www.raagdelhi.com

The cognitive brillance

Hyper-efficiency is no longer defined by the quantity of output, but by its quality. And assembly-line flattened minds seem to have given up on this change. With the modern-day workload shifting from the hands to the head, the mind and body do not seem to be in sync. It may mean some kind of redundancy, as if the brain has refused to cooperate. Not really, a car now suddenly stopping in the middle of a busy street is taken to a computer engineer not a car mechanic. Simply put, software has gradually replaced hardware in almost every facet in industrial countries. With technology evolving at fast pace, the change is not far from us.  

Technology has changed and humans seem to have quite a bit of lost control. Unless human brain optimizes to transform the outcome, much of the focus is likely to be lost. Brain doctor Dr. Mithu Storoni has outlined the emerging enigma, and wonders if more than conventional nudge alone can process the information better. The task is to escalate human performance to a new height and improve the way we work. That is what hyper-efficiency is all about, achieving a level of efficiency that has not been achieved.

Creatively written and smarty packed four chapters, Hyper-Efficient packs many ideas and approaches to think and work about. Change the speed is unlikely to bring about the desired result, change the pattern will. From the linear approach to a non-linear rhythmic way is under attention. Marching like solider in a straight line to spinning like a dancer in a rhythm, will create the innovative mental landscape for leaning new ways of problem solving. Only by adopting new approach the tsunami of technological change will be outsmarted.

It is a smart new way of thinking about life. and life processes. The idea finally is to think about identifying the brain’s unseen gears that can make life more elegant. Our brains must navigate like never before, it should navigate the virtual world with imagination at an unprecedented speed. University of Cambridge-trained physician and neuroscientist Dr. Storoni flips through the human brain to suggest game-changing scenario.  If we persist with old kind of assembly-line production system, the ecosystem is never ready to face new challenges. There is no room for flair and brilliance, there is hardly any out-of-the box thinking.

It is true of the Angkor, which became the largest preindustrial city in the world. It had tamed uncertainty by collecting water. The same innovation that had transformed Angkor, the medieval capital of the ancient Khmer empire, led to its dazzling downfall. The city had eliminated uncertainty altogether, and in the process forgot to cope with it should it reoccur. A bit of chaos in the system can make the system more resilient to unexpected shocks. The system had adopted linearity at the cost of ignoring rhythm, out-of-box thinking was compromised.

Hyper-Efficient is book that helps the reader shut out distractions to concentrate on high-level achievement. If one is less distracted, one can sleep better during night and perform better during the day. Who doesn’t know it! The book explores and explains human brain to do things differently, and ready for doing what is essentially out of the course. It unlocks the brain, realizes full potential to its optimum mental performance. It is a book of discovery, that helps discover one’s mind.

Hyper.Efficiency
by Mithu Storoni
Hachette, New Delhi
Extent: 266 pages, Price: Rs. 599.

First published in www.raagdelhi.com on Oct, 4, 2024